Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Abelards predictions

It's barely a month until election day; so, I thought I would jump on the bandwagon and offer up my predictions.

Hey, my crystal ball is just as good as anyone else.

So, here are Abelards predictions

Obama will be the next President of the United States. I say this as a person who is likely to vote for McCain on election day. McCain's problem is that he just isn't doing that good of a job campaigning. He gained popularity by being the maverick of the republican party. So, where is our maverick? What we're seeing is a politically correct McCain trying to be all things to all people. I think his choice of Sarah Palin for vice president was an act of desperation. She has energized his conservative base to a certain degree; but, frankly, those aren't the people who needed energizing. I mean, it isn't like he had to worry about them voting for Obama. Sarah Palin is cute and spunky - but is that enough to pull in the critical moderate vote? Personally, I don't think so.

Proposition 8 in California for a constitutional amendment to define marriage as a union between a man and a woman will fail. I tend to agree with Japhy Grant (from Flaming Politics) who observed that, while many remain opposed to same sex marriage, most are not so opposed as to believe that the government needs to step in to ban it.

"Don't Ask Don't Tell" will not be abolished during Obama's first term. While doing away with "Don't Ask Don't Tell" is gaining momentum in the general population, it gets very little support among the military brass. As commander in chief, Obama will have to prove himself to the military commanders and gain their respect. I do not think he will risk pissing them off by allowing gays to be in the military.

Republicans will gain control of congress in two years. This is, of course, contingent upon Obama winning the presidential election. I think most people are uncomfortable with the same political party controlling both the white house and congress . The corollary to this is that, if McCain wins, the democrats will retain control of congress.

Hillery Clinton is not going away. The Democratic party has a history of abandoning candidates who lose elections, particularly major elections - more so than the Republican party. Unfortunately, I think Hillery has enough popularity and support to buck this trend. Depending on Obama's approval rating over the next four years, I would not put it past her to challenge the democratic incumbent in 2012.

The Republican party will continue to implode over the next four years. Face it, the far right bigoted religious wacko conservative zealots have taken over the party. We need someone with enough guts to tell them to shut up and put them in their place. Although I am not a big fan of McCain, I thought he might be able to do this - but he's wussing out. And, I don't see any rising stars to take their place as the new more moderate leader in the Republican party.

The Democratic party will continue to implode over the next four years. Face it, the far left bigoted liberal wacko's have taken over the party. Actually, this may be a good thing since having imploding political parties (on both sides of the aisle) renders them relatively impotent as they pander to their wacko constituents and continue to demonstrate time and again that they are not in touch with everyday Americans.

The stereotypical gay culture will start to become marginalized. The rise of organizations such as Log Cabin Republicans and the Gay Christian Network are breaking stereotypes. I think the general population will start to take notice of this and realize that Will and Grace is not typical of most homosexuals.

6 comments:

Kengo Biddles said...

Obama will be the next President of the United States.

I agree with this--that's what the polls are showing, and with parts of the Republican base agitating for Palin to step down--that doesn't bode well.

Proposition 8 in California for a constitutional amendment to define marriage as a union between a man and a woman will fail.

We can hope

"Don't Ask Don't Tell" will not be abolished during Obama's first term.

Don't know, don't care, actually.

Republicans will gain control of Congress in two years.

I doubt this, and I say it because folks had NO problems in letting the Republicans control Congress for 6 years of Bush's regime--I could see it working the same during an Obama administration ... depending on his popularity with the people.

Hillary Clinton is not going away.

Sadly, no. She's not.

The Republican/Democratic party will continue to implode over the next four years.

If only. I'd like to see us have more than just a two directional choice. I was genuinely excited for Perot in 92--I wish he'd won, to tell you the truth.

The stereotypical gay culture will start to become marginalized.

Don't know, not too worried about it to tell the truth. I think the nation as a whole has gone through a Gay adolescence, to tell you the truth.

Philip said...

What about the economy?

Folks always blame the party in power when the economy slumps.

I think the Republicans will take the fall since they have been in power until recently.

If Obama is the next President, he will inherit this economic mess and if the economy improves during his first term then that will bode well for the Democrats.

I agree the Clintons will not go away. If I learned anything this election campaign is that the only party the Clintons are loyal to is the Clinton party. It's always about them.

Gay culture was always about being marginalized. Now that society is more accepting gay people are doing what every other marginalized group in the past has done and leaving their marginalized neighborhoods and integrating into mainstream communities and in the process changing both the gay and mainstream culture forever. I love that I have lived long enough to see gay go from being a perversion to being about couples moving to suburbs to raise their families.

Regards,
Philip

Beck said...

I would wager that you're right all the way down the list, excepting the one about Republicans coming back in Congress. That will only happen if Obama goes off the deep end like Clinton did and usher in the turn-around of 1994.

In reality, I want them all to go! I'm fed up with them all. I'm the one that votes NO for retaining all judges and NO on all school board members being re-elected. I hate that my senator has been in office since I was a senior in high school (and that was at least an eon or two ago).

Throw the bums out!

Bror said...

I need to get more into the political scene.

J G-W said...

I'm not a Republican, but...

I honestly think Mitt Romney would have been the best candidate to represent the various factions and elements within the Republican Party. He's a faith-based conservative, but not a fanatic... I think he would have brought some fiscal sanity back to the Oval Office. Oddly, it's the "tax and spend liberals" who seem to be the party of staying within your means lately. Romney might have brought some of those values back to the Republican Party. I think he lost because he was a Mormon. Huckabee's Bible-belt rebellion basically served to keep a Mormon out of the White House, handing the nomination to McCain -- that was his sole achievement.

Philip said...

Abel: Republicans will gain control of Congress in two years.

Initially I thought "no way" but now I see how this might come about.

Let's assume Obama becomes President, the Democrats win a clear majority in both houses and the economy doesn't improve or worsens. Let's also assume Republicans use those two years to successfully redefine their brand and get their act together.

After having the Democrats in power for four years, I can see Americans saying in 2010 "enough, Democrats have had their chance: let's see what the Republicans can do."

Regards,
Philip