It's barely a month until election day; so, I thought I would jump on the bandwagon and offer up my predictions.
Hey, my crystal ball is just as good as anyone else.
So, here are Abelards predictions
Obama will be the next President of the United States. I say this as a person who is likely to vote for McCain on election day. McCain's problem is that he just isn't doing that good of a job campaigning. He gained popularity by being the maverick of the republican party. So, where is our maverick? What we're seeing is a politically correct McCain trying to be all things to all people. I think his choice of Sarah Palin for vice president was an act of desperation. She has energized his conservative base to a certain degree; but, frankly, those aren't the people who needed energizing. I mean, it isn't like he had to worry about them voting for Obama. Sarah Palin is cute and spunky - but is that enough to pull in the critical moderate vote? Personally, I don't think so.
Proposition 8 in California for a constitutional amendment to define marriage as a union between a man and a woman will fail. I tend to agree with
Japhy Grant (from Flaming Politics) who observed that, while many remain opposed to same sex marriage, most are not so opposed as to believe that the government needs to step in to ban it.
"Don't Ask Don't Tell" will not be abolished during Obama's first term. While doing away with "Don't Ask Don't Tell" is gaining momentum in the general population, it gets very little support among the military brass. As commander in chief, Obama will have to prove himself to the military commanders and gain their respect. I do not think he will risk pissing them off by allowing gays to be in the military.
Republicans will gain control of congress in two years. This is, of course, contingent upon Obama winning the presidential election. I think most people are uncomfortable with the same political party controlling both the white house and congress . The corollary to this is that, if McCain wins, the democrats will retain control of congress.
Hillery Clinton is not going away. The Democratic party has a history of abandoning candidates who lose elections, particularly major elections - more so than the Republican party. Unfortunately, I think Hillery has enough popularity and support to buck this trend. Depending on Obama's approval rating over the next four years, I would not put it past her to challenge the democratic incumbent in 2012.
The Republican party will continue to implode over the next four years. Face it, the far right bigoted religious wacko conservative zealots have taken over the party. We need someone with enough guts to tell them to shut up and put them in their place. Although I am not a big fan of McCain, I thought he might be able to do this - but he's wussing out. And, I don't see any rising stars to take their place as the new more moderate leader in the Republican party.
The Democratic party will continue to implode over the next four years. Face it, the far left bigoted liberal wacko's have taken over the party. Actually, this may be a good thing since having imploding political parties (on both sides of the aisle) renders them relatively impotent as they pander to their wacko constituents and continue to demonstrate time and again that they are not in touch with everyday Americans.
The stereotypical gay culture will start to become marginalized. The rise of organizations such as
Log Cabin Republicans and the
Gay Christian Network are breaking stereotypes. I think the general population will start to take notice of this and realize that Will and Grace is not typical of most homosexuals.
Last night marks the 10th anniversary when Matthew Shepherd was pistol whipped, tortured, tied to a fence in a remote rural area near Laramie Wyoming, and left to die. He was discovered eighteen hours later, laying in a coma, by a cyclist who at first thought that he was a scarecrow. He died a week later from severe head injuries.
